Cuba does not foresee a great change with the arrival of Obama

Interview with Ricardo Alarcón, President of the Cuban National Assembly

Cuba does not foresee a great change with the arrival of Obama.

Dialogue will occur if Washington assumes a more rational attitude.

By Blanche Petrich

The Cuban official analyzes the arrival of the Democratic Senator from
Illinois to the White House, and the possibilities for interaction
with Havana. "I know the United States well enough to know that there
is a difference between what has existed up until now and what is
coming," he says.

La Jornada (Mexico)
December 16, 2008


Observing the news about the victory of Barack Obama this past
November 4, the veteran Cuban communist Ricardo Alarcón did not
overlook "a detail" in the massive gathering that greeted the first
black President of the United States, which happened in the same place
where the great protests of 1969 put a close to the combative decade
of the sixties.

"I saw the images and recognized many friends in tears, people who
were part of the New Left of another era. They felt a special kind of
emotion in gathering there, not the kind one feels when one is beaten
but rather in celebration of the election of a black man as President,
who has promised to change the country. I am not naïve, I know that we
cannot expect much change with respect to U.S. policy towards Cuba,
but I understand their sense of hope."

The President of the National Assembly of People's Power speaks at
length with La Jornada about the unknown factors, expectations and
limits to a new era that will begin "with this young man and his new
team." He is passionate about the subject. As representative of the
revolutionary government at the United Nations, he lived in New York
during the years of struggle for Civil Rights (1966-1978). He has
never disconnected himself from study and analysis of U.S. politics,
neither while Vice-Minister of Foreign Relations nor while
representing his government in the periodic and low-profile meetings
between Washington and Havana on migratory issues during the 1980s and
90s.

He draws his conclusions in a very Cuban way: "It's not going to be
easy, chico."

He couches his opinions in the advice given by Fidel Castro – written
in one of his reflections days before the election – alerting all to
the "powerful tide of illusions" awakened by the phenomenon of
"Obamamania."

"What we have at present," says Alarcón, "is a great victory by Obama,
which can only be explained by his capacity to develop a wide
consensus among millions of U.S. citizens who in turn came together
based on a hope for change, one that has not been defined with
precision. He is a man with a background that made us think that he
would never be elected: son of an African immigrant, with a political
trajectory that in the United States is considered liberal, and
without a trace of concession to the right. I know the United States
well enough to know that there is a difference between what has
existed up until now and what is coming."

"But an analysis of any promised change gets complicated with the
subject of Cuba. I do not believe that we can expect a big change.

He is not radical, but rather follows a different line

Petrich: He ran his campaign as if he was an "anti-establishment"
politician, but he is filling his team with people who are of the
system.



Alarcón: This is true and it is not surprising. He never promised a
socialist revolution. He promised change and it makes sense to me the
fact that he is trying to maintain the greatest consensus possible in
the process. The left is criticizing him because he has filled his
teams – economic, national security, social policy – with old
Democrats now returning to power. Nevertheless, his is not the same
line as that of Bush. There is change, not radical, but it is not the
same as before.

In the case of Cuba, what Obama promised was to eliminate the
restrictions added by Bush to those that were already in existence to
limit remittances and travel to the island by Cubans residing in the
United States. As these were executive decisions, Obama can annul them
with his own executive decision. Objectively speaking, that will not
mean the end of the blockade nor an end to the politics of aggression,
but it is very good news for Cubans on both sides of the straights. It
is healthy. If he in fact does not take this step, then forget it. He
will not do anything at all.

Petrich: Can things go further than that?

Alarcón: Nothing he has said indicates this. It will depend on many
other factors.


Petrich: What could possibly bring about further changes?

Alarcón: Obama has many other big problems to deal with. In the first
place, the economy. How is he going to deal with that problem? What
does he do with two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? And what will he do
in terms of the relationship between the United States and the rest of
the world? I say to you with all sincerity, Cuba is not their biggest
concern.

The thing that is new, that differentiates him from candidates of the
past many years, is that he has been elected thanks to the involvement
of millions of U.S. citizens who are not part of a political party,
that have neither an organization nor a political program. This
shapeless force has exhibited its capacity to win, but how will it
operate now? Will it continue to exist?

This is not to say that some change is not evident, if compared with
the recent, and terrible, past of the United States. For many people
in the United States, it is a relief to have someone like Eric Holder
as Attorney General in place of Alberto Gonzalez.


Petrich: There are many unknown factors…

Alarcón: Look, the new administration has not even taken office. What
has happened is an important change in a single aspect of power in the
U.S., that is to say in the executive branch. In the Congress, the
Democrats increased their majorities. The numbers of (Democratic)
state governors increased. In the northeast of the country they
experienced an overwhelming victory, although this is not to say that
all of those elected will be agents of change. When Obama takes
office, given all of the political forces and currents, he will face a
difficult situation.


Impossible to prevent the fall of the empire

Petrich: Regarding Cuban expectations, will there be greater space for
political dialogue and diplomacy?

Alarcón: The truth is there has always been room for discreet dialogue
and private discussion. A discreet form of diplomacy was maintained
and proved itself useful until the arrival of little Bush and his
incredible team.

Look at the interview granted by President Raúl Castro to Sean Penn
(interview conducted by the U.S. actor, published in the December
edition of The Nation.) Raúl pointed out a very interesting detail
that is not at all secret: that there has been a systematic dialogue
between Cuban and U.S. military officials since 1994 in Guantánamo,
the point at which the hostility between the two countries is
greatest, at which there are two flags, with a fence between them, and
troops on both sides. There, they talk.


Petrich: So then, are there possibilities to resuscitate such dialogue?

Alarcón: Yes, if Obama is able to instill a commitment towards
multilateralism in place of unilateralism; if the United States
displays a more rational attitude, one that would be more peaceful and
modest. The United States no longer is the hegemonic superpower that
can decide things by itself. The world has changed. It is no longer
realistic to attempt to impose U.S. hegemony and uphold an imperial
project. That crazy perspective is what carried the U.S. to Iraq, to
Afghanistan, and to international isolation.

They are not the owners of the world and they never will be again.
They were close to being that at the end of the Second World War, at
the onset of the Cold War. When the Cuban Revolution triumphed they
were able to isolate us. Not any more.


Petrich: Concretely, in Latin America, what will change with Obama:
trade, the Free Trade Area of the Americas and Plan Colombia?

Alarcón: They should look for the best museum that they can find to
put the FTAA on display. The new government in Washington has as some
of its biggest supporters the trade union movement, the very workers
who have been struggling against the free trade agreements.

Latin America anticipated the United States in its criticism of the
neoliberal agenda by electing Chávez in Venezuela, Lula in Brazil, Evo
(Morales) in Bolivia, etc. The challenge to the U.S. now is to
establish normal relations that are respectful of such processes. An
accommodation with Cuba will be an important piece of any new
relationship with Latin America, and all of the leaders in the region
have stated this. I would not ask so much; rather I would accept
simply that they recognize that Latin America began to change before
they did.


Petrich: If Obama were to make a significant gesture towards
normalizing relations, how would Cuba respond?

Alarcón: We would thank him for correcting an error that has lasted fifty years.



Ricardo Alarcón de Quesada served as Cuba's ambassador to the United
Nations between 1965 and 1979. Upon his return to Cuba he was Vice
Minister of Foreign Relations and deputy head of the negotiations team
that led to the liberation of Namibia, the end to the incarceration of
Nelson Mandela and to the war in Angola. In 1990 when Cuba was elected
as non-permanent member to the UN Security Council Alarcón was once
again sent my his government to chair the post of Ambassador. He
returned to Cuba in 1992 as Foreign Minister and was elected in 1993
President of the National Assembly. Alarcón has served four subsequent
terms as the head of the legislative body of Cuba and continues to
spearhead foreign policy issues.



(Translation by Louis Head, Cuba Research & Analysis Group, Albuquerque)