The world did not end in 2012 as some internet doomsday predictions had forecast. But in India, at the start of the year, political certainties became fuzzier and the sense of an ending of UPA-II increased. Shaking up its edifice was the diminutive lady in a white sari from West Bengal, its chief minister Mamata Banerjee. Her contrarian positions on policy matters and refusal to support legislation pushed by the Centre, along with a deteriorating equation with the Congress in her state, could signal a political meltdown. It is now an open secret that UPA-II is fishing for new allies, failing which, bets are on the government collapsing unless Mamata suddenly softens her stand.
The signs, however, are to the contrary, as Didi applies her own brand of didigiri. Over the years, she has acquired the reputation of being temperamental and rash, but now there appears to be a clear method to the madness. She is no Lady Gaga but quite the Lady Dada, who could be the catalyst for political change. But the question is, why is Mamata acting up now?
For Mrs G Youth Congress leaders protest the renaming of Indira Bhavan. (Photograph by Sandipan Chatterjee)
The West Bengal CM is primarily charting a course as a strong regional leader and breaking free of whatever remains of her origins as a Congress politician. The decision to rename Indira Bhavan in Calcutta after the poet Nazrul Islam is not just an attempt to please her Muslim constituency, as has been suggested, but also to deny her own origins as a one-time follower of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. "Mamata Banerjee's destiny," says Trinamool MP Derek O'Brien, "is shaped by no one else but the people for whom she has fought and won a long and desperate battle from the tyranny of the Communists. Her long struggle on behalf of the underprivileged and the oppressed has been historic. People are her strength. They guide her actions."
Mamata operates in a state where the concerns and grammar of politics have been determined by the Left. She must therefore speak up for the powers of the state and the idea of federalism. Hence her opposing the Lokpal bill in its current form. She must also appear to speak against the big multinational, hence her opposition to FDI in retail. With the Communists her big opponents, she must always articulate the concerns of the marginalised. She must continue to try and outdo the Left, in style if not in substance.
CPI(M) central committee member Mohammad Salim agrees that she tries to be left of the Left. "Because of Bengal's orientation on social issues, the environment is Left-oriented. So some days, she supports the extreme Left and Maoists as a tactical move. She is also distancing herself from the mess of the Congress at the Centre and trying to pick up Bengali icons and create a cult of herself. But she believes only in symbolism, for beyond the pretence, she is cooperating with neo-liberal forces, doing away with government procurement in the rural sector, promoting the private sector in health and education." Although Mamata defeated the Left Front less than a year ago, they are the opponents who must be countered.
It's also good politics for her to demolish what remains of the state Congress and become the only anti-CPI(M) force in the state. During the assembly elections last year, the only Congress candidate she campaigned for was Pranab Mukherjee's son, Abhijeet. Some months down the line, now that she has a majority on her own, there are daily squabbles with the state Congress, although they are part of the ruling establishment. According to Congress leaders, ever since her victory, there have been 61 cases of attacks on Congress offices.
Besides, the always fiercely-contested panchayat elections of West Bengal are due later this year. The Trinamool would certainly be looking to consolidate its hold in the countryside and the Congress would prove to be excess baggage. Says Shakeel Ahmed, cwc member in charge of West Bengal, "There is a perception that Mamata Banerjee wants to occupy the entire anti-Left space."
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Besides, there is the larger argument of Mamata really having no stake in the longevity of UPA-II. An early election would see her tally of MPs go up from the 19 who won in 2009 while two years down the line, in 2014, when general elections are due, the anti-incumbency against her would have increased. Although a majority of MPs want to avoid polls and complete their terms, there are three parties who stand poised to gain in the event of a mid-term election—the TMC, the AIADMK and the JD(U). Says political analyst Tarun Ganguly, "Mamata sees herself as a gainer and the Congress as a loser if early elections take place. She is also not unheard-of outside Bengal. The land agitation in UP is modelled after Nandigram and Singur, and Mamata would like to play that up during the UP polls."
Mamata is even expected to travel to UP to campaign during the assembly polls. She has nothing to lose from building a national profile and a lot to gain. She certainly sees herself as a player in larger coalition building in the event of a non-Congress, non-BJP regime. And she would be mindful of the reality that the Left has traditionally played an important role in any third-front type formation. Mamata would like to occupy that space, hence the rhetoric and positioning consistent with a certain brand of politics that draws from both the regional sentiment and a symbolic identification with the dispossessed. Chandan Mitra, the BJP MP who had handled the West Bengal elections, says, "Mamata would now see herself as a big player on the national stage and she will put up candidates here and there. Her party will become a magnet for petulant Congressmen. But I do not believe the stories that suggest she has serious prime ministerial ambitions."
Mamata Shadow The Teesta deal came undone on her protests
Either way, Didi spells trouble for the Congress-led UPA. Given the current numbers on which the Manmohan Singh regime survives, the government would fall in Parliament if the TMC does not support a finance bill. That is why the pension bill was withdrawn in the winter session last month. And the possibility of the TMC opposing the budget because it does not agree with the economics of Manmohan Singh cannot be ruled out. The chance of the TMC MPs opposing the proposed Food Security Bill on the grounds of states' powers being encroached upon is very strong. And since another petrol price hike is believed to be imminent, one can well imagine the outrage and scorn Mamata would pour on New Delhi. This marriage could certainly be headed for a divorce. Asked if the TMC can give any guarantee that it would not allow UPA-II to fall, Derek O'Brien replied: "Our focus is to bring good governance in Bengal. Our MPs too have a single-minded vision: good deeds for the people. Everything and everyone else is secondary." One can only extrapolate that the survival of a shaky regime in Delhi is not really a concern for Mamata's party.
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Should the UPA actually collapse and a BJP-led regime come into existence, it cannot be forgotten that Mamata was once part of the NDA. She now has a huge Muslim vote to consider, so an overt arrangement is out of the question. But she can certainly do business with another type of government, particularly if it gives greater leeway to regional parties. So, right now she is sitting pretty. Heads she wins. Tails you lose.
By Saba Naqvi in New Delhi and Dola Mitra in Calcutta
| ALSO IN THIS STORY |
MAMATA BANERJEE How the Trinamool-Congress spat has been playing out on the airwaves in the new year |
MAMATA BANERJEE Seeking to expand its role beyond Bengal, TMC's is a populist view on most bills |
 OPINION Mistake not Didi's instinct-driven defiance for chance antagonism |
AUTHORS: SABA NAQVI | DOLA MITRA
PEOPLE: MAMATA BANERJEE
TAGS: TRINAMOOL CONGRESS | UPA | CPI-M | CPI | LOKAYUKTA & LOKPAL | FDI AND MNCS IN RETAIL| CONGRESS | SAMAJWADI PARTY
SECTION: NATIONAL
SUBSECTION: COVER STORIES
PLACES: WEST BENGAL
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| 19/D-71 JAN 08, 2012 07:41 PM | What is really interesting is the Congress Party, in this whole mess. They don't, or didn't care about Mamata, I presume it was because they thought the financial package was needed desperately by the Trinamool Congress. There is no other explanation. Why on earth, are they allies with Mamata and the Trinamool? It is a brainless exercise by the Congress. I mean, whoever thought out this policy, has no brains. Who else, apart from Mr Pranab Mukherjee, is in the Congress Committee of West Bengal? Mr Mukherjee is not the cause of the problem, it seems to me. |
18/D-70 JAN 08, 2012 07:35 PM | Mamata Banerjee has a strange conundrum. She cannot on any account, it seems, join the Left, or the NDA, now that she is the Chief Minister of Paschim Banga The Muslims would not like her joining hands with the NDA, perhaps. The Congress in Paschim Banga, is very keen to not be the B team of the Trinamool Congress. I think, the recent happenings in Paschim Banga, the result of the actions of the Youth Congress, is believed by Mamata Banerjee to have the blessings of New Delhi, whoever could have given the blessings. Now, Mr Pranab Mukherjee is the face of Congress in Paschim Banga. It is natural, that there are problems for the ruling coalition in West Bengal, or isn't it? The Congress shot itself in the foot, when a prominent Congressman, tried to be very smart, and said to the effect, but in catchy language, that the Congress was not trying to waste it's time as a political party in Paschim Banga but wanted to be the ruling party, not a long time ago. Now, I don't claim to be a clairvoyant. This is simple. |
17/D-67 JAN 08, 2012 07:23 PM | Lot of people here is taking Mamata for a street fighter & not an astute politician. They are wrong. If street fighting is the only name of the game to take on the the CPM , then who better than the CPM itself ? It took much more than street-fight to dislodge these enternched thugis from Bengal. Fact is off late Mamata Banerjee is playing her political cards with enormous finnesse. The Congress Party is at its usual opportunistic best . When Mamata was fighting the communists , they were in daily pow-wow with the CPM. Now that Mamata has bested the communists single handedly, the congress non-entities wants much more than their share of fruits of power. That does not happen with todays mature Mamata. She now looks far from petulant or impulsive. Mamata has been on board the UPA-II for last three years & no murmur was heard about her giving trouble except for occassinal business chamber inspired grouse for her blocking the land bill. Bulk of oil price hike was done when she a was a central cabinet minister ranked number 4. Manmohan Singh & his sactimonious economic eshtablishment were slouching or giving enchors when the communists were wracking havoc witth the state's economy. Any money that they could lay their hands on went to feed the cadres which included government employees & the police. They systematcally stripped the state exchequer to keep the bloated cadre happy leaving a defecit of 2.5 lack crore. Where was the central government when this loot was happening? Congress do not understand that that there is no free lunch. If they must depend on Mamata's support to survive in New Delhi , they must be ready to pay a price which the lady is now demanding. FDI in retail , federal srtucture & such rubbish are subtrefuges with which politicians play their games. If they decide to latch on to likes Mulyam Singh & deep-six Mamata , its Congress's business. For now Mamata does not loose anything eiother way. She can only add to her political gravitas. And as usual with everything of late, in picking a fight with Mamata , the Congress is digging its own grave. Going forward 2/3 yeras what she does with this political capital is another story & no point second-guessing at this point of time. For now all the cards are hers. |
16/D-58 JAN 08, 2012 04:50 PM | Bengalis have opted for noisy drum for a harsh trumpet! |
15/D-46 JAN 08, 2012 12:18 PM | Almost all the lady party leaders in India are arrogant by nature it seems. The inept governance of Congress adds fuel to their egos. Congress is unable to handle anything now a days. Better Congress steps down from the centre before it is too tooooo late and meet the electorates. If it fails, sure seems, should hibernate for some terms of years and try to clean the party and make strong the base. Otherwise Congress will be Congress like Tamilnadu Congress in other States too. But, so far Didi has been right on her actions and the Congress made blunders by not consulting its allies for any policy matters. The big brother attitude of Congress is telling stories in its own den. |
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