Even before United States President Barack Obama completed his 9-minute speech declaring the death of Al Qaeda supremo Osama bin Laden in an American operation, an ecstatic crowd had begun to gather in Lafayette Park across the White House. Men and women waved American flags and impromptu placards, some punched the air with their fists, as if celebrating a sporting victory over a formidable rival. In New York, at the site where the twin towers of the World Trade Center once loomed, the crowd was sombre but vividly emotional, remembering loved ones who perished there in the 9/11 attacks.
Nobody has yet reported on the response of members of Al Qaeda to the death of Osama [Since this story went to press, the al-Qaeda have declared itself as a "curse" on America, vowed bloodshed and asked Pakistan to rise up in revolt: Web Ed]. An estimate of their mood will have to wait till the release of the customary videotape from one of the organisation's commanders. In the wide swathe of the Arab world where Osama and many of his followers hailed from, though, the people seemed more keen on their campaign for democracy than the demise of a man who held at least some of them in a thrall. In Yemen, where an Al Qaeda wing remains strong, pro-democracy activists openly cautioned comrades from letting the death distract from the battle for democracy. Egypt didn't see any passionate marches condemning the Americans; the Jordanians were confused; those in Syria and Bahrain were too engrossed in evading the crackdown by their own despotic regimes to have time for anything else.
The contrasting pictures in West Asia and America prompted Oxford historian Faisal Devji, author of books on radical Islam, to say, "The death of Osama doesn't seem to have generated as much interest in the Muslim world, including even Pakistan, as it has in the US, which suggests that politics in the Middle East and elsewhere has already moved on while the US still remains stuck in a war of its own making." To the historian, the reaction to bin Laden's demise suggests that it's as if his historical role had been completed.
 "Politics in the Muslim world is moving towards opposition, to regimes and even to terrorism...."Dr Maha Azzam, Associate Fellow, Chatham House |  "Democratic revolutions have only been successful in two countries...it's still a fight in other Arab states." Abdel Bari Atwan, Editor, Al-Quds al-Arabi | |
 "Osama's death is like a vast computer program with many windows open. One has closed. That's all." Duncan Falconer,Spy novelist |  "The symbolic end of the War on Terror may allow Obama to pursue a politics he hasn't merely inherited." Faisal Devji, Oxford historian | |
 "If the US continues with use of force as first option, the political process will see a setback. It'll affect us." Wajid Shamsul Hassan, Pakistan high commissioner, UK |  "Local militants, seen by some as 'strategic assets', may prove costly if Pak has to fight the battle alone."Ayesha Siddiqa, Defence analyst | |
Pray, what was Osama's role? It's from Al Qaeda that the ongoing democratic movements in the Arab world have borrowed the idea of building a decentralised, leaderless organisation to maintain efficacy. It's from Osama that they adopted the idea of fearlessness and sacrifice—albeit without his nihilist ideology—to express their democratic aspirations to ruthless regimes. Says Devji, "If anything, this tells us how quickly one form of sacrificial action can turn into its opposite."
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Atwan and others think there will be pockets of support for Al Qaeda as long as the causes of its rise are not addressed. These can be variously identified in three aspects—America's control over oil-rich Arab nations, its sustained support for Israel, and its perpetual attempts to ensure no other power rises as a counterpoise to the dominance of its ally. Says an Indian diplomat posted in the region, "Osama's was just one more attempt at overturning the unjust order imposed by the West on the region, the earlier efforts being Pan-Islamism, Pan-Arabism, Arab socialism and Baathism. With their failure, Osama simply decided to use the instrument of jehad, which had been so remarkably successful in the Afghan theatre." The success being referred to here is the ouster of the erstwhile Soviet forces from Afghanistan, which subsequently became the base from where major terror strikes against the West were masterminded. It's also the theatre where America discovers it has been bogged down, hoping under President Obama that it'll be able to cut its losses, seek out an early exit plan.
The 26/11 attack on the Taj Mahal Hotel, Mumbai
So can we then say that the death of Osama marks the beginning of the end of terrorism? Analysts say an answer to this question must take into account the Al Qaeda structure as it has evolved. All the experts Outlook talked to were unanimous in the opinion that Qaeda has lost its capacity to mastermind and execute attacks; that Osama had become more a 'spiritual', symbolic leader of the militant Islamic movement; that it had spawned a franchise system, handing out the licence to use its name to local terror organisations who wanted to punish America and its allies for their own reasons. Agrees Scott Atran of the National Centre for Scientific Research, Paris, "Since 2002, the Al Qaeda core led by Osama had ceased to be a command and control organisation with any real operational capacity of importance." Atwan agrees somewhat, "His death is naturally a devastating blow to Al Qaeda as he was the spiritual leader of the group. But I don't think it will cripple the organisation as it is."
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Over the next few months, some predict, the world could witness dramatic terror attacks, packaged as retribution against the Americans for celebrating the death of Osama or even for 'burying' him at sea. Jeffrey Dressler of the Institute for the Study of War, Washington, cites the spurt in terror attacks in Iraq following the death of Qaeda franchisee Abu Musab Zarqawi to paint a bleaker future, at least in the short term. "The killing of Zarqawi showed that cutting off the head of the snake does not, in and of itself, kill the body. Sometimes, it can be a galvanising event," says Dressler.
America's hypocritical foreign policy could also create new pressure points for the militants to seize upon. For instance, the western intervention in Libya has virtually exacerbated a condition of civil war. Atwan says that though Gaddafi is much hated in the Arab world, the killing of his son and three grandchildren in a missile attack has made many in West Asia extremely unhappy. Others point out that while the West was quick to intervene militarily in Libya, it hasn't at all been vociferous in condemning the crackdown in Bahrain and Yemen. Now look at Syria, which has been trenchantly criticised for shooting protesters, perhaps only because it is opposed to Israel. So it's fair to say that the West's picking and choosing of battles to back has cast a shadow on its talk of support for democracy.
Short-term apart, the death of Osama is decidedly a body blow for militant Islamic ideology. As such, Muslims worldwide had become disenchanted with Al Qaeda, numbed as it was by its strategy of mindless killings. As Azzam says, "The process of drawing back from extremism has been going on for some time now. Imams have been turning the youth to the precepts of Islam that preach non-violence, objecting to the idea of terrorism. The politics on the ground in much of the Muslim world is moving towards opposition, not just of regimes but opposition to terrorism too...this is becoming an era of non-violent protest." Scott Atran insists the times are changing in the Arab world, "The youth in Egypt did in 18 days what Al Qaeda couldn't do in 18 years. The Qaeda narrative pretty much collapses as both inefficient and misguided."
Yet Devji warns that the symbolism evident in the death of Osama will only be important if it allows the US to begin plan an end to the war in Afghanistan—by negotiating with all the principals to the
conflict. "The symbolic end of the War on Terror may well allow President Obama to finally pursue a politics that he has not merely inherited," Devji says. Indeed, when the Taliban was in power in Kabul in the late 1990s and early 2000s, talks with the US invariably broke down over Osama—the Americans wanted the Taliban to hand him over, their leader Mullah Omar refused. American officials, therefore, say the removal of Osama from the scene opens up new possibilities.
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The scenario in Afghanistan depends on what the principal actors will do now. Pakistan high commissioner in London Wajid Shamsul Hassan says, "It will depend on how the Taliban plays their card, whether they join the political process. If the US continues with force as the first option, the political process will see a setback and stability will not return to that country. This will have a direct impact on Pakistan."
Others, though, say it is Pakistan which must bring a change in its behaviour. As writer Khaled Ahmed resignedly points out, "Terrorism in Pakistan emanates from the state structure. An end to terrorism will come if the state allows self-correction." Defence analyst Dr Ayesha Siddiqa sees dark days ahead for Pakistan. For one, she feels the Americans will no longer have the same interest in Afghanistan and will want to pull out its troops soon. "Islamabad will then increasingly face the consequences of dealing with the local militant elements. These private warriors, viewed by some as 'strategic assets', may prove costly to the state's security if Islamabad has to fight this battle alone."
Egyptians at the Tahrir Square protests in Cairo
What of India then, will it get some respite from terror in the post-Osama era? Says Pakistani academic Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, "Well, improved Indo-Pak relations will give space to Islamabad to adopt a firm posture towards these groups. Both countries need to solve the smaller problems and improve interaction across the international border. This will make it difficult for extremist Islamic groups to play on anti-India sentiments to build support at the popular level in Pakistan." But, as seen before, this process invariably gets aborted through random acts of terror attacks in India.
Still, this much can be said: there is potential to believe, more than ever before, that Islamic terror could ebb over the long term. Yet it crucially depends on a change in America's conduct in West Asia, the resolution of the Israel-Palestine issue, the success of what is called the Arab Spring, and an end to cynical games in South Asia. There are just too many imponderables here, too many issues, too many actors who believe in one kind of terror or another.
By Ashish Kumar Sen in Washington, Pranay Sharma in Delhi, Saptarshi Ray in London and Amir Mir in Lahore
| ALSO IN THIS STORY |
PAKISTAN History closes its doors on Osama bin Laden's millenarian chapter, but pages full of question marks stare at Pakistan |
PAKISTAN Operation Geronimo has made it a season for Indian hardliners to up the ante |
OPERATION OSAMA Outlook builds the eye-popping narrative of how Pakistan was very much in on Osama's outing. Why isn't it saying so? |
 INTERVIEW The Independent's veteran Middle East correspondent, Robert Fisk on Pakistan's role |
FIRST PERSON Indelible impressions from two interviews with the Al Qaeda chief |
 OPINION Who wants a martyr in Osama? Certainly not the aam Muslim. |
AUTHORS: ASHISH KUMAR SEN | PRANAY SHARMA | SAPTARSHI RAY | AMIR MIR
PEOPLE: OSAMA BIN LADEN
TAGS: AL-QAEDA | TERRORISM | ISLAMIST MILITANTS | MUSLIMS | LASHKAR-E-TAIBA
SECTION: INTERNATIONAL
SUBSECTION: COVER STORIES
MAY 08, 2011 07:03 PM 10 | Ghai ji - "There is no difference between a Commando Ops and Encounter both aim to liquidate Terrorists ." There is no difference between Osama and petty Muslim criminals of Gujarat? Sohrabuddin was not a terrorist. There is no proof that Israt was a terrorist. The thousands of muslims killed by the government in Gujrat were also not terrorists. when will this racial abuse of our community end? |
MAY 08, 2011 05:47 PM 9 | I have ever supported any Islamist jehadis.' Faruki Your Afgan Freedom Fighters -Mast Gul, ILayas Kashmiri and host of others are roaming in Kashmir and co-ordinated 26/11, Pune Bakery Blast etc. There is no difference between a Commando Ops and Encounter both aim to liquidate Terrorists . |
MAY 08, 2011 03:08 AM 8 | Ghai, >> not to resort to Extra Judicial elimnatios of Terrorists like Isharats ,IMs and others. You are back supporting your favorite cause, fake encounter murders! The Supreme Court's taking such murders seriously does not seem to mean anything to you. There is a difference between a fake encounter and a commando operation. >> Hopefully Teesta and other supporters of Islamic Jehadis will stop haranguing us now onwards ! |
MAY 08, 2011 02:14 AM 7 | "Politics in the Muslim world is moving towards opposition to regimes and even to terrorism...." Dr Maha Azzam. This seems to be the trend among educated Muslims in the US, India, Pakistan and elsewhere. The opposition to dictatorial regimes has been around for a long time. The notion of giving Uncle Sam a bloody nose was tantalizing for a while after 9/11, but most people snapped out of it when the true nature of terrorism sank in, except perhaps some ignorant mullahs. |
MAY 07, 2011 11:02 PM 6 | "OBL and a Pakistani Citizen But because now, like so many other times when events of global significance take place, we must think and fear and dread and speculate about what will happen to us and to our country So from being bombed back to the dark ages to more covert operations (both of which include more blood, more civilian casualties and, simply speaking, more death and destruction) this is what we're thinking about and expecting. " www.newslinemagazine.com/2011/05/obl-and-a-pakistani-citizen/ Good Article . |
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