Thursday, March 31, 2011

POLITICS: POLLS Loose Change Battling a season of scams, the Congress sees in the five state elections a chance to silence its critics and prove that voters still have faith in it DOLA MITRA

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POLITICS: POLLS
Loose Change
Battling a season of scams, the Congress sees in the five state elections a chance to silence its critics and prove that voters still have faith in it

http://outlookindia.com/article.aspx?271046

There's much at stake for the UPA in the five state elections over the next two months. Battling a season of scams, the Congress sees in the elections a chance to silence its critics and prove that voters still have faith in it. But will it be a cakewalk, as the party claims? In West Bengal, its difficult ally in Mamata Banerjee apart, the Left is showing signs of recovery. In Tamil Nadu, it seems to be advantage Jayalalitha, given the DMK's 2G woes. In Kerala, the 'pendulum' syndrome favours the Left alliance, though it's faction-ridden. Outlook gauges the early trends.

By all accounts, it's virtually a foregone conclusion that in the assembly elections in West Bengal—in  six phases, to be held from April 10-May 10—history will be made, with 34 years of Left rule swept away by an audacious Trinamool Congress. But in all the talk of the winds of change blowing, something is being overlooked—it has lost the gale force with which it raged around the time of the 2009 parliamentary elections. That was when, in one cyclonic swirl, Mamata and her ally, the Congress, won 25 of 42 seats and handed a drubbing to the Communists. Going by trends in the Lok Sabha polls, and the panchayat elections that followed, even Left leaders privately admit that the TMC will almost certainly topple the Buddhadeb Bhattacharya government.

But naturally, the excitement post Nandigram, Singur and Lalgarh has evaporated. The initial euphoria people felt at the prospect of an alternative to the Left Front has given way to a resigned acceptance that it's really a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. "Mamata was like a breath of fresh air, known for her honesty and integrity. She also stood up against exploitation of the poor, whether in Singur, Nandigram or Lalgarh," points out Sharmistha Adhikari, a human rights activist. "But the last couple of years have exposed her and her party's rhetoric as little more than just hot air." Mamata is unfazed by criticism. "I believe one good person can change all that's bad around her," she told Outlook.

Mamata's performance as Union railway minister—in spite of her brazen partiality towards Bengal—has left some disillusioned. They question her ability to credibly manage a responsible portfolio. "She doesn't seem to bother much about her central ministry, except maybe to flag off one train after another," says Bijon Ghosh, a marketing executive, who had voted TMC in the Lok Sabha elections. CM Buddhadeb Bhattacharya had sniggered at her much-publicised inaugurations: "I keep hearing about these new trains: the uronto (flying), the ghumonto (sleeping), the chhutonto (running) etc. But where are all these going?"

Even the TMC-run municipal corporations in Bengal are not showing significant signs of ushering in an era of good governance. If corruption was a way of life for CPI(M) councillors and other civic body members, TMC councillors are not paragons of virtue either. A developer in the TMC-held Sonarpur municipality area complains, "If CPI(M) councillors demanded Rs 10,000 as bribe for sanctioning building plans, TMC councillors expect nothing less than Rs 30,000."

But, scepticism notwithstanding, there is no denying that the buzz is about Mamata and the Trinamool. Film stars like Tapas Paul and Satabdi Roy  are with her. She has given tickets to former IAS and IPS officers. Amit Mitra, the head of FICCI, has joined TMC and is being pitched as the finance minister. She has also roped in former Naxalite leader Purnendu Bose.

Mamata's pitch is that she has a team of intellectuals, financial brains and able administrators to make her government work, should she be elected. She has also taken a leaf out of the Left's book and promised land reforms.

But her ally, the Congress, has teething problems. It was expected that  Muslims, who constitute 25 per cent of Bengal's electorate, would vote Congress. Traditionally Left Front supporters, they were gradually disillusioned by such episodes as the Rizwanur killing. Subsequently, Muslims played a prominent part in the Left's fall from grace over the past few years. With the Congress being allotted only 64 seats out of the 294 by the TMC, it did not give Muslim groups any seats. In retaliation, groups like the People's Democratic Conference of India, the People's Democratic Front and the West Bengal State Muslim League have decided to put together a front with smaller parties and have threatened to contest in about 80 seats. This could badly hit the TMC-Congress alliance.

Mamata is banking on anti-incumbency. Though the Left has dropped nine ministers and 50 MLAs from their electoral list and given tickets to grassroots level leaders (touted as new faces), it remains to be seen if that will help them recover the ground and goodwill so hopelessly lost and energise the cadres.  It's true that the turnout at recent Left rallies have been impressive, but Communists are past masters at mobilising crowds.

Most people agree that the Left's last ditch effort to win the confidence of the voters—by apologising for their 'mistakes' as they have been doing, and infusing newer, younger blood—is too little and too late. Some optimistic CPI(M) leaders sense a revival of their front. True, some gains have come its way, given the constant bickering within the TMC, and charges of corruption and open criticism of the way the party has been functioning from MPs like Kabir Suman. The Trinamool chief also had a public falling-out with one of her trusted aides, the artist Suvaprasanna, again over her style of functioning.

Despite all this, the voter, it seems, is impatient for a change.

PRINT COMMENTS
POLITICS: POLLS
Congress face corruption charges, AGP old bogeys; the evenly matched parties blink at the ULFA factor
OUTLOOK
ELECTIONS: TAMIL NADU
Amma or the Kalaignar? The election is too close to call in TN.
PUSHPA IYENGAR
ELECTIONS: KERALA
The Congress-led UDF seems the best bet
DEBARSHI DASGUPTA

MAR 30, 2011 04:18 AM
8

Mamata should release all political prisoners the day she takes office. Day 2, she should visit a tribal dominated area and announce immediate rehab and developmental plans.

If Mamata wants to bring about a change in West bengal, she needs to develop and strengthen rural Bengal first so that the pressure on Kolkata gets reduced.

SURYA SHARMA
KOLKATA, INDIA
MAR 28, 2011 01:35 PM
7

Either way Hindus are the losers,with both CPM and Congress vying with each other in appeasing the Muslims in W.Bengal and appeasing both Muslims and Christians in Kerala.Hindus are just taken for granted.That great secularist Jyothi Basu dared not stop the Mosques blaring calls at 5am,despite the supreme court ruling.CPM leader Namboodripad created a Muslim majority district,Malappuram.Yet the Muslims would not allow his statue to be installed on a road to a mosque.Today,Friday is the weekly holiday in Malappuram,when even in Pakistan Musharaff changed it from Friday to Sunday.The inaugural function of Cricket World Cup,showed that even Bangladesh is more Hindu culturally,compared to West Bengal, dominated by the Muslim and Christian forces.So it does not matter whether it is Congress,or CPM or TMC which will come to power in these two states.

S.S.NAGARAJ
BANGALORE, INDIA
MAR 28, 2011 12:36 AM
6

@kiran..........

rest assured, mamata is not a maoist sympathizer. she briefly associated with some pro-maoist elements only to build up a mass base where the TMC had been virtually absent: the adivasi belt of west bengal. if she becomes CM one of her first tasks will be to drive out the maoists.

can't you see: the political interests of mamata and the maoists never coincide. she is just an opportunistic leader without any definite political program and thriving only on anti-incumbency. the maoists are a political formation with a definite goal and strategy, however disagreeable they might be. actually the maoists resemble the CPI-M much more, which is natural since both claim to be Marx's followers. only the CPI-M participates in electoral politics and therefore is infected by all the vices we see in our MP/MLA culture. on the other hand, the maoists believe in armed struggle so that they often get involved in murderous violence, sometimes even killing poor people.

what can really save bengal and india is a broad left consolidation, combining a wide spectrum of socialist politics, which will include elements of both mainstream and naxalite communists. but a pre-condition to such an exercise is that the maoists and CPI-M should stop their turf war and stop killing each other's cadres. unfotunately that is not likely to happen any day soon, since both are out to prove that the other one is "un-communist".

KALOBARAN SINGH
KOLKATA, INDIA
MAR 27, 2011 11:52 PM
5

Yes, the people of West Bengal desperately need a change. Yet, status quo ante is probably preferable to a bleak future under an unpredictable maverick of a leader whose track record so far has been far from awe-inspiring. Surely the people of Bengal deserve a better choice than what is on offer in the forthcoming elections.

D.L.NARAYAN
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA
MAR 27, 2011 11:19 PM
4

" it's really a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea"

- So very true.

LOPAMUDRA
MUMBAI, INDIA
--
Palash Biswas
Pl Read:
http://nandigramunited-banga.blogspot.com/

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