Friday, May 22, 2009

Re: [Bahujan-forum] 15th Lok Sabha Election: Some Snippets



On Fri, May 22, 2009 at 12:28 AM, Sukla Sen <sukla.sen@gmail.com> wrote:


[One interesting aspect is that amidst all the cacophonous din regarding resurgence of the Congress, and thereby national parties at the cost of the regional ones, the combined vote share of the top two, by far the largest, "national" parties has actually fallen from 48.9 to 47.4% by 1.5% points. And they together polled less than half the votes cast. 
Till 7, the Congress used to poll around 45%. (Actually the downfall came in 67, followed by a temporary resurgence post-split in 71. Then the much sharper downturn in 77 inaugurating a declining curve, with some fluctuations.) That gives us a rough idea about the extent of "resurgence".

In fact, these figures appear to have been further updated. As per the latest figures provided by the EC (Ref. <http://eci.nic.in/results/frmPercentVotesPartyWiseChart.aspx>):
INC - 27.31, BJP - 17.88, CPIM - 7.22, BSP - 5.78, NCP - 1.90, CPI - 1.62, RJD - 1.17 and Others - 37.12.
So, Cong. + BJP = 45.19%.

Trinamool Congress - 32.46, CPIM - 32.05, Congress - 12.76, BJP - 6.31, RSP - 3.98, CPI - 3.75 ,FB - 2.88
So not only the CPIM has fallen behind the Trinammool, the combined vote share of the LF is 42.66 as against Trinamool + Congess 46.22. The SUCI, in alliance with the Trinammool, has wrested one seat from the RSP.

The seatwise position of the parties (Ref.: <http://eci.nic.in/results/frmPartywiseChart.aspx>):
Trinamool - 19, CPIM - 9, Congress - 6, RSP/CPI/FB - 2 each (6), SUCI -1, BJP -1.]

From: Ravinder Singh <progressindia008@yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, May 21, 2009 at 9:21 AM

Congress got 52% more Votes than BJP
 
INC won 90 more seats - 206 compared to 116 seats for BJP.
 
http://eci.nic.in/results/FrmPartyWiseTrendsAndResults.aspx
 
Congress vote share up 2% to 28.6%, BJP down 3.5% to 18.8%
28.6 / 18.8 = + 52%
 
Ravinder Singh
May21, 2009
 
Modi loses vote share by 0.9%
 
Congress Leads BJP By 10% Across Country
 
TIMES INSIGHT GROUP May18, 2009

   With vote-share figures coming in on Sunday, there are several dramatic stories to tell. One of them may not appear as dramatic but has high political significance. In Gujarat, the BJP's vote share has declined since 2004 by 0.9%, while the Congress too has lost 0.5%, explaining why results were pretty much the same.

   But in the status quo lies a major loss of face for Narendra Modi. Unlike in 2004, this time Modi assumed the role of one of the lead campaigners for BJP, was touted as a dynamo of development and projected as the party's prime ministerial aspirant for the next Lok Sabha polls. Considering his top billing, the fact that under him the party actually lost vote share in his state shows up the limits of his appeal.

   Overall, the tally of seats chalked up by the major players in India's political theatre tells only part of the story of the huge changes that have taken place over the last five years. It does not reveal, for instance, that the Congress has gained over 2% in vote share to reach 28.6%, while the BJP has dropped almost 3.5% to reach 18.8%. In other words, the gap between the big two, which was wafer thin till 1999 has now reached almost 10%.

   A closer look at the vote shares in some major states reveals even more startling trends. In Uttar Pradesh, for example, the Congress has hiked its vote share from a mere 12% last time to 18.3% now. In the process, it has overtaken the BJP in the state, which has slid from 22.2% to 17.5%. Again, while the SP has retained its numero uno status in terms of seats, it has actually lost 3.4% in vote share, while the BSP has gained 2.7%, with the result that it now has 27.4% to the SP's 23.3% — a sizeable lead in a state as fragmented as UP.

   The UPA can thank Raj Thackeray's MNS in Maharashtra and Praja Rajyam in Andhra Pradesh for cutting into opposition's vote share.

NUMBERS TELL A STORY

All-India:

Congress vote share up 2% to 28.6%, BJP down 3.5% to 18.8%

Gujarat:

BJP share down 0.9% from 2004 to 46.5%, Cong also down 0.5% to 43.4%

Andhra:

Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam gets 16% vote, helps Cong survive 2.6% loss

West Bengal:

Left loses 7.5%, TMC up 10.2%

["CPM alone lost 5.5% [point] in vote share, dropping from 38.6% to 33.1%, and its allies in the Left also shed 2%, so that the front's combined vote share came down from 50.8% last time to 43.3% this time."]


UP:

Cong up 6.3% in to 18.3%, BJP drops 4.7% to 17.5%; BSP gains 2.7% to 27.4%, SP loses 3.4% to fall to 23.3%

Bihar:

Lalu suffers 11.4% fall, Cong up 6.2%

Rajasthan:

BJP down 12.4%, Cong up 5.8%

Maharashtra:

MNS picks up 4% overall, and 21% in Mumbai. Seriously dents Sena-BJP
 
http://eci.nic.in/results/FrmPartyWiseTrendsAndResults.aspx


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Data as on : May 21 2009 11:25PM
Party Winners/No of Seats Party Type
Bahujan Samaj Party 21 National
Bharatiya Janata Party 116 National
Communist Party of India 4 National
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 16 National
Indian National Congress 206 National
Nationalist Congress Party 9 National
Rashtriya Janata Dal 4 National
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 9 State
All India Forward Bloc 2 State
All India Trinamool Congress 19 State
Asom Gana Parishad 1 State
Assam United Democratic Front 1 State
Biju Janata Dal 14 State
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 18 State
Jammu & Kashmir National Conference 3 State
Janata Dal (Secular) 3 State
Janata Dal (United) 20 State
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 2 State
Kerala Congress (M) 1 State
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 1 State
Muslim League Kerala State Committee 2 State
Nagaland Peoples Front 1 State
Revolutionary Socialist Party 2 State
Samajwadi Party 23 State
Shiromani Akali Dal 4 State
Shivsena 11 State
Sikkim Democratic Front 1 State
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 2 State
Telugu Desam 6 State
All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen 1 UnRecognized
Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi 1 UnRecognized
Bodaland Peoples Front 1 UnRecognized
Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) 1 UnRecognized
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) 1 UnRecognized
Rashtriya Lok Dal 5 UnRecognized
Swabhimani Paksha 1 UnRecognized
Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katch 1 UnRecognized
Independent 9 Independents




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